* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL112013 09/30/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 43 46 49 52 54 56 57 57 58 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 43 46 49 52 54 56 57 57 58 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 41 42 45 47 49 52 56 61 64 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 14 18 20 18 17 13 12 14 17 22 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 3 0 0 -2 -6 -4 -5 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 300 298 303 310 319 301 313 288 299 277 257 255 245 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.2 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 131 132 132 135 137 137 137 135 134 127 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 110 109 110 111 115 118 117 117 115 115 109 102 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.0 -55.1 -55.2 -55.3 -55.2 -55.2 -55.4 -55.5 -55.4 -55.6 -56.2 -56.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 9 9 9 8 6 700-500 MB RH 52 50 46 44 42 38 40 43 46 48 50 48 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -76 -57 -40 -30 -20 -5 -14 -29 -40 -37 -48 -53 -43 200 MB DIV -30 -2 -29 -53 -43 2 4 0 5 -16 19 17 15 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -6 -6 -5 -3 -4 0 0 0 -1 -3 0 LAND (KM) 2203 2216 2228 2218 2208 2157 2044 1988 2002 2027 1942 1850 1779 LAT (DEG N) 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.7 27.7 28.8 29.8 31.1 32.5 LONG(DEG W) 46.3 46.1 45.9 46.0 46.0 46.5 47.7 48.6 49.0 48.6 47.4 45.6 43.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 2 2 4 5 5 5 6 9 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 30 27 24 24 25 32 25 14 12 12 9 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 22. 23. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112013 JERRY 09/30/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -31.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112013 JERRY 09/30/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112013 JERRY 09/30/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)