* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL112013 09/30/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 39 41 43 46 48 50 52 53 55 56 56 V (KT) LAND 35 38 39 41 43 46 48 50 52 53 55 56 56 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 41 42 44 46 49 53 57 62 65 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 18 23 21 16 22 12 15 12 14 15 18 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 3 4 -2 -1 -5 -6 -4 -3 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 308 309 319 326 314 312 304 316 286 277 244 232 214 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.5 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 128 131 131 135 136 137 136 136 134 130 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 109 107 110 112 116 116 116 113 114 114 112 105 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.3 -55.3 -55.4 -55.4 -55.4 -55.5 -55.5 -55.5 -55.6 -55.7 -56.3 -56.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 49 44 41 38 37 37 40 43 47 52 56 58 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 10 9 7 7 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -40 -25 -18 -9 -23 -27 -37 -37 -35 -46 -60 -41 200 MB DIV -1 -14 -60 -51 0 -16 4 -6 0 1 33 31 37 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -1 -2 0 -2 0 0 0 1 -1 0 -5 LAND (KM) 2266 2295 2323 2324 2292 2171 2060 2004 1997 2033 2001 1918 1823 LAT (DEG N) 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.9 27.4 28.1 28.7 29.2 30.3 31.7 LONG(DEG W) 45.2 45.0 44.7 45.0 45.3 46.6 47.9 48.8 49.3 48.9 47.7 46.2 44.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 1 3 4 6 5 4 3 5 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 16 17 18 32 20 13 11 12 12 7 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 20. 21. 21. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112013 JERRY 09/30/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -25.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112013 JERRY 09/30/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112013 JERRY 09/30/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED