* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL112013 10/01/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 51 53 54 56 58 59 59 58 57 55 53 V (KT) LAND 45 49 51 53 54 56 58 59 59 58 57 55 53 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 51 53 54 55 56 59 63 65 66 63 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 23 21 17 19 17 14 12 20 20 26 23 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 3 3 0 -1 -4 -4 -5 -4 -4 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 313 319 322 319 307 326 307 302 278 272 274 264 261 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.4 26.9 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 127 129 132 133 134 134 134 132 128 122 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 105 107 111 113 114 114 111 111 111 108 104 100 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.4 -55.5 -55.8 -55.8 -55.7 -55.7 -55.8 -55.3 -55.2 -55.6 -56.4 -56.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 44 42 38 36 36 39 40 43 43 43 42 44 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 10 11 11 10 10 9 7 7 6 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -26 -14 -16 -22 -36 -36 -42 -25 -24 -37 -52 -61 200 MB DIV -4 -55 -50 -9 -2 -6 -9 -4 -18 14 10 12 12 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 0 -1 -2 1 1 0 -1 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 2280 2302 2323 2315 2309 2211 2148 2071 2002 1925 1857 1796 1756 LAT (DEG N) 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.9 27.2 27.8 28.5 29.1 29.9 30.8 31.8 32.8 LONG(DEG W) 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.6 45.2 46.4 47.4 48.0 48.2 47.7 46.5 45.0 43.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 3 5 5 5 5 3 4 6 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 8 11 13 14 16 32 23 15 13 10 9 2 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. 8. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112013 JERRY 10/01/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112013 JERRY 10/01/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112013 JERRY 10/01/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED