* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL112013 10/01/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 52 53 56 60 61 59 58 56 56 57 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 52 53 56 60 61 59 58 56 56 57 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 51 52 53 55 58 62 64 65 64 62 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 17 14 16 14 9 12 16 20 26 25 24 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 0 0 0 -2 -4 -1 -3 -4 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 313 306 300 296 297 277 313 280 273 260 265 252 250 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.3 26.8 26.2 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 127 129 130 132 131 130 130 126 122 116 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 106 107 110 111 112 110 108 109 107 105 101 97 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.7 -55.7 -55.9 -56.0 -55.4 -55.7 -55.5 -55.5 -55.3 -55.9 -56.5 -57.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 41 39 37 36 39 40 39 40 38 35 36 38 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 14 12 11 11 10 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -12 -14 -18 -21 -22 -15 -2 -9 -3 -17 -43 -41 200 MB DIV -58 -46 -12 0 -17 11 -15 -8 -9 -4 -4 5 25 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 4 1 2 0 -4 -7 -2 -3 -6 LAND (KM) 2314 2317 2320 2305 2291 2221 2127 2073 2031 1986 1914 1866 1858 LAT (DEG N) 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.5 28.2 28.7 29.2 29.9 31.0 32.3 33.6 LONG(DEG W) 43.6 43.9 44.1 44.6 45.1 46.1 46.9 46.9 46.4 45.3 44.0 41.9 39.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 4 5 5 3 3 5 7 9 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 10 12 13 13 15 27 23 15 9 4 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 11. 15. 16. 14. 13. 11. 11. 12. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112013 JERRY 10/01/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -26.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112013 JERRY 10/01/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112013 JERRY 10/01/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)