* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL112013 10/01/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 40 40 40 42 44 46 46 46 45 44 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 40 40 40 42 44 46 46 46 45 44 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 41 41 42 44 47 50 53 55 55 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 20 17 11 13 10 16 16 19 26 32 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 4 4 -1 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 317 319 333 352 346 343 300 296 270 269 260 266 257 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.2 25.9 25.8 25.6 25.4 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 124 123 123 124 123 120 118 114 112 112 109 106 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 102 102 104 103 101 99 97 96 96 93 89 86 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -56.2 -56.2 -56.3 -56.3 -56.2 -56.2 -55.9 -55.8 -56.2 -56.6 -57.1 -57.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 33 32 34 37 39 45 46 48 48 44 44 41 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 4 5 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -40 -56 -57 -57 -74 -65 -65 -52 -67 -60 -60 -73 200 MB DIV -37 -9 -28 -20 8 -16 0 9 18 5 4 6 -8 700-850 TADV 2 2 10 11 6 10 6 3 0 -2 -1 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 2233 2216 2198 2153 2108 2045 1993 1982 2007 2063 2149 2054 1990 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.8 29.2 29.9 30.7 31.3 31.8 32.3 32.8 33.0 33.1 LONG(DEG W) 43.5 43.6 43.6 43.7 43.8 43.5 42.7 41.5 39.9 37.9 35.6 34.2 33.4 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 4 4 4 6 7 8 9 8 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 1 1 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 785 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 15. 17. 20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 5. 4. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112013 JERRY 10/01/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 50.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112013 JERRY 10/01/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112013 JERRY 10/01/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)