* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL112013 10/02/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 33 33 35 39 43 44 45 45 43 41 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 33 33 35 39 43 44 45 45 43 41 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 33 33 35 38 42 46 50 51 50 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 8 13 13 8 13 16 19 21 28 37 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 6 0 -1 -3 -3 -2 -3 0 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 323 345 336 330 344 285 276 262 271 264 256 246 255 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.2 25.9 25.5 24.8 23.7 22.2 21.6 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 124 123 120 116 114 110 105 98 90 87 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 105 105 104 103 101 99 96 92 86 80 78 75 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.1 -56.0 -56.1 -56.2 -56.4 -56.1 -55.8 -56.3 -56.1 -55.8 -56.1 -57.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 36 37 40 40 42 45 44 41 41 43 43 39 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -63 -62 -60 -69 -79 -74 -65 -49 -67 -53 -52 -57 -36 200 MB DIV -28 -26 -14 3 -9 1 18 11 11 17 22 1 29 700-850 TADV 7 6 5 5 9 5 12 3 6 11 4 1 3 LAND (KM) 2220 2188 2157 2120 2085 2030 2030 2076 2041 1870 1599 1318 1026 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.5 28.8 29.3 29.8 31.0 32.2 33.3 34.3 35.8 37.8 39.8 41.8 LONG(DEG W) 43.9 43.8 43.6 43.2 42.7 41.1 38.7 36.1 33.4 30.5 27.5 24.5 21.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 6 8 10 12 12 13 15 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 16. 18. 20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 4. 8. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112013 JERRY 10/02/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112013 JERRY 10/02/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112013 JERRY 10/02/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)