* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL112013 10/02/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 36 40 44 46 50 52 50 46 43 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 36 40 44 46 50 52 50 46 43 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 36 37 39 43 47 51 53 53 52 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 13 13 8 12 14 18 20 23 29 38 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 0 0 0 -6 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 332 325 320 345 346 280 247 262 259 251 252 260 262 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.0 25.7 25.3 24.3 23.0 21.8 21.5 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 123 121 119 115 112 108 101 94 88 86 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 105 105 105 103 100 98 94 89 83 78 77 74 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.0 -56.0 -56.2 -56.4 -56.3 -56.0 -56.3 -56.9 -56.9 -56.9 -56.9 -57.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 39 41 41 43 42 46 44 41 40 38 39 42 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 7 6 5 6 7 6 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -61 -62 -68 -78 -81 -74 -51 -53 -54 -63 -66 -97 -48 200 MB DIV -30 -20 -1 -13 -10 4 10 -2 16 13 14 -2 10 700-850 TADV 7 4 5 9 7 3 5 2 9 0 2 7 21 LAND (KM) 2210 2179 2150 2113 2080 2075 2109 2084 1933 1767 1463 1200 916 LAT (DEG N) 28.2 28.6 29.0 29.6 30.2 31.3 32.4 33.5 34.9 36.6 38.7 40.5 42.0 LONG(DEG W) 43.9 43.6 43.2 42.5 41.8 39.5 36.9 34.3 31.8 29.1 26.1 23.2 20.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 7 9 10 12 12 12 13 15 15 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 1 11 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 15. 17. 20. 22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 9. 11. 15. 17. 15. 11. 8. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112013 JERRY 10/02/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112013 JERRY 10/02/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112013 JERRY 10/02/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED