* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL112013 10/03/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 39 44 47 49 49 51 48 45 51 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 39 44 47 49 49 51 48 45 51 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 38 41 46 49 50 50 50 50 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 7 4 11 16 22 22 24 20 29 27 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 0 -5 -2 -3 -1 -3 -3 -1 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 317 340 337 292 262 241 252 261 264 259 243 220 193 SST (C) 26.8 26.5 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.5 24.9 24.2 23.4 22.3 21.7 21.5 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 121 119 116 114 114 110 105 99 94 88 86 85 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 103 101 100 99 96 91 85 81 78 76 75 73 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.5 -56.6 -56.5 -56.6 -56.5 -56.7 -57.0 -56.7 -56.5 -55.8 -56.3 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 39 41 42 42 43 41 38 40 38 44 42 43 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 7 5 3 12 850 MB ENV VOR -78 -82 -81 -80 -70 -56 -53 -59 -67 -46 -56 -29 41 200 MB DIV -8 -13 -8 3 7 6 7 11 19 30 10 39 59 700-850 TADV 4 7 8 8 1 8 4 6 7 8 4 3 1 LAND (KM) 2138 2103 2073 2070 2074 2146 1990 1854 1754 1582 1360 1173 952 LAT (DEG N) 29.4 30.1 30.7 31.3 31.9 32.9 33.9 34.8 35.8 37.0 38.6 40.0 41.2 LONG(DEG W) 42.4 41.6 40.8 39.6 38.4 35.5 33.0 30.9 29.1 27.1 24.9 22.8 20.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 12 12 12 11 9 9 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 17. 19. 20. 22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -5. -6. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 12. 14. 14. 16. 13. 10. 16. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112013 JERRY 10/03/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112013 JERRY 10/03/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112013 JERRY 10/03/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)