* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC PROXY USED * * JERRY AL112013 10/03/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 32 34 39 43 45 43 41 41 39 37 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 32 34 39 43 45 43 41 41 39 37 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 29 31 34 37 40 42 43 44 44 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 15 16 16 23 23 24 27 34 34 38 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -6 -6 -3 -4 -3 -1 -2 -4 -3 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 332 287 285 279 251 253 259 251 247 253 250 247 242 SST (C) 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.5 24.9 24.0 23.0 22.0 21.7 21.3 20.7 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 116 115 114 112 110 105 98 92 87 85 84 81 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 101 100 98 96 91 85 80 76 75 74 72 71 200 MB T (C) -57.0 -56.9 -56.8 -56.8 -56.7 -56.9 -57.4 -56.9 -56.4 -56.9 -57.6 -57.7 -58.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 43 43 43 43 43 41 40 39 38 29 33 43 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -81 -83 -78 -70 -56 -53 -57 -68 -53 -85 -89 -51 -25 200 MB DIV 5 6 12 28 19 8 16 24 14 2 25 28 23 700-850 TADV 9 7 4 9 6 1 9 11 5 1 3 20 17 LAND (KM) 2077 2087 2104 2128 2145 1969 1832 1743 1589 1441 1245 1057 836 LAT (DEG N) 30.7 31.3 31.8 32.4 32.9 33.8 35.0 36.5 38.4 40.1 41.5 42.9 43.9 LONG(DEG W) 40.7 39.4 38.0 36.7 35.3 32.8 30.5 28.8 27.5 26.0 24.1 22.1 19.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 11 10 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 9 CX,CY: 7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 2. -2. -5. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 16. 19. 22. 24. 27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 4. 9. 13. 15. 13. 11. 11. 9. 7. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112013 JERRY 10/03/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112013 JERRY 10/03/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112013 JERRY 10/03/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)