* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122013 10/03/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 57 58 60 62 59 64 61 56 46 38 30 V (KT) LAND 50 54 57 58 60 62 59 64 44 32 28 27 28 V (KT) LGE mod 50 55 59 61 62 62 60 58 42 31 28 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 18 20 22 23 26 26 34 36 42 45 48 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 1 5 -1 0 -3 -5 -3 2 -1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 256 256 249 260 264 248 266 235 245 220 215 204 213 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.9 25.9 24.3 22.9 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 153 155 154 149 144 140 136 115 102 93 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 135 139 138 136 128 123 120 117 101 90 82 75 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.1 -52.9 -52.5 -53.2 -52.6 -53.7 -54.6 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 8 9 7 7 1 2 0 2 0 700-500 MB RH 58 58 57 52 50 47 42 43 49 52 44 40 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 14 12 13 14 13 18 19 20 17 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -22 -22 -52 -74 -70 -87 -14 21 57 50 23 42 200 MB DIV 50 33 32 45 24 36 15 81 54 58 27 57 31 700-850 TADV 5 10 8 14 16 7 6 7 15 8 -10 -14 -10 LAND (KM) 48 155 273 374 368 216 102 69 -92 -330 -262 -231 -87 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 23.0 24.0 24.9 25.8 27.2 28.5 29.8 31.3 33.1 35.1 37.1 39.0 LONG(DEG W) 87.6 88.1 88.6 88.8 88.9 88.8 88.5 88.0 86.8 84.6 81.3 78.6 76.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 8 11 15 16 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 22 25 32 36 35 30 37 39 23 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 5. 6. 7. 3. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 10. 12. 9. 14. 11. 7. -4. -12. -20. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122013 KAREN 10/03/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122013 KAREN 10/03/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122013 KAREN 10/03/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)