* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL112013 10/03/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 41 44 44 41 39 38 35 33 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 41 44 44 41 39 38 35 33 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 34 37 40 41 42 43 44 44 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 16 17 16 23 26 24 25 32 33 36 30 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -5 -2 -1 -6 -1 -2 -1 -3 -3 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 287 279 279 252 243 250 250 247 244 258 258 256 265 SST (C) 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.5 25.2 24.4 23.4 22.3 21.8 21.4 20.8 20.1 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 114 113 112 110 107 101 94 88 86 84 82 80 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 98 97 96 94 87 82 78 76 74 73 71 71 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -57.1 -57.0 -56.9 -56.8 -57.2 -57.5 -57.0 -56.9 -57.4 -57.6 -57.8 -58.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 43 44 45 44 43 42 41 41 36 34 41 44 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 7 6 6 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -84 -76 -72 -61 -62 -63 -74 -71 -84 -102 -64 -44 -60 200 MB DIV -2 9 27 22 11 9 20 17 8 6 33 30 8 700-850 TADV 7 2 11 7 0 7 14 9 5 6 13 14 11 LAND (KM) 2066 2083 2106 2141 2067 1911 1834 1653 1482 1279 1063 851 627 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 32.0 32.5 33.0 33.5 34.6 36.1 37.7 39.5 41.1 42.4 43.6 44.6 LONG(DEG W) 39.3 38.1 36.8 35.5 34.1 31.7 29.9 28.1 26.4 24.4 22.1 19.6 16.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 11 CX,CY: 8/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 9. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 4. 0. -4. -8. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 14. 11. 9. 8. 5. 3. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112013 JERRY 10/03/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112013 JERRY 10/03/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112013 JERRY 10/03/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)