* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122013 10/03/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 57 57 59 57 61 63 60 48 37 28 19 V (KT) LAND 55 57 57 57 59 57 61 63 40 31 28 28 24 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 60 61 61 60 58 57 39 30 28 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 23 22 20 28 21 26 34 49 51 50 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 -1 -1 0 -3 1 5 0 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 254 250 257 259 248 265 235 231 212 225 217 215 210 SST (C) 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.3 27.4 25.2 23.9 21.6 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 151 154 156 152 147 143 141 130 109 100 88 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 136 138 138 133 126 122 121 114 97 90 79 76 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -53.1 -54.4 -54.9 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 3 2 0 2 0 1 700-500 MB RH 59 58 54 52 52 41 45 48 52 47 47 52 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 13 13 15 14 19 21 22 17 14 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -22 -46 -65 -57 -98 -25 -2 55 39 21 2 12 200 MB DIV 55 46 32 16 44 19 68 78 74 44 40 66 49 700-850 TADV 10 10 11 13 10 19 5 8 6 0 6 7 14 LAND (KM) 147 244 340 422 334 178 65 33 -145 -293 -262 -62 105 LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.7 24.5 25.3 26.1 27.5 28.7 30.1 31.8 33.8 36.0 38.1 39.9 LONG(DEG W) 88.3 88.7 89.1 89.4 89.6 89.4 88.8 87.8 86.1 83.3 79.7 76.1 72.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 10 13 17 18 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 22 28 36 38 40 37 32 27 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -13. -17. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 1. 0. 3. 5. 7. 1. -2. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 4. 2. 6. 8. 5. -7. -18. -27. -36. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122013 KAREN 10/03/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122013 KAREN 10/03/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122013 KAREN 10/03/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)