* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122013 10/04/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 53 52 51 54 55 52 43 35 28 20 V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 53 52 51 54 42 32 28 27 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 57 57 56 54 53 43 32 28 27 28 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 29 24 22 28 28 31 39 48 51 58 59 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -1 1 -1 -1 -5 -2 0 -1 -8 -2 SHEAR DIR 254 265 272 259 256 265 240 244 221 220 212 213 223 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.1 26.0 24.3 23.1 21.1 19.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 154 152 149 144 142 139 116 102 94 85 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 138 137 133 129 123 122 122 102 90 83 76 73 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -54.5 -55.3 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 7 7 1 2 0 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 54 53 53 49 42 45 52 54 53 53 51 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 12 11 13 13 13 17 19 20 18 18 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -54 -70 -63 -71 -74 -22 31 57 19 11 16 4 200 MB DIV 34 17 8 18 46 65 57 59 64 72 60 55 55 700-850 TADV 8 12 8 6 10 7 4 11 3 2 -2 -20 -12 LAND (KM) 257 354 412 329 245 101 40 -61 -320 -294 -266 -53 42 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.6 25.4 26.2 26.9 28.2 29.4 31.0 33.0 35.0 37.0 38.8 40.4 LONG(DEG W) 88.8 89.2 89.6 89.8 89.9 89.5 88.8 87.1 84.6 81.8 79.0 76.0 72.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 7 6 9 13 15 15 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 35 41 42 40 39 30 24 28 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -21. -25. -29. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 2. 4. 5. 2. 2. 1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -1. 0. -3. -12. -20. -27. -35. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122013 KAREN 10/04/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122013 KAREN 10/04/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122013 KAREN 10/04/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED