* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122013 10/04/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 52 52 50 52 53 56 49 42 35 31 24 V (KT) LAND 55 53 52 52 50 52 53 39 31 28 27 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 54 54 53 52 51 50 38 30 28 27 28 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 29 25 21 27 27 23 33 33 43 52 59 59 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 1 2 -2 -5 0 1 -6 -6 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 263 272 259 258 266 259 254 238 223 211 216 211 230 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.7 25.6 24.3 22.7 20.9 19.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 154 150 146 144 142 134 112 101 92 84 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 134 130 125 124 124 118 98 89 81 75 71 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -53.9 -55.6 -56.4 -56.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 8 10 5 4 2 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 54 53 49 44 43 44 49 49 41 38 36 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 12 13 12 15 17 20 18 16 15 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -66 -63 -72 -96 -39 -16 49 61 50 -15 -28 -45 200 MB DIV 16 14 23 46 34 47 43 65 39 32 18 42 12 700-850 TADV 10 14 7 7 12 2 12 8 5 -19 -22 -43 -22 LAND (KM) 351 429 345 272 200 93 78 -110 -259 -236 -217 -42 0 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 25.3 26.0 26.7 27.3 28.3 29.7 31.4 33.3 35.3 37.3 39.2 40.8 LONG(DEG W) 89.5 89.7 89.9 90.0 90.1 89.8 88.1 85.8 83.3 80.7 78.4 75.7 72.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 5 7 12 14 14 14 14 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 41 42 41 40 39 28 31 23 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -24. -28. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 4. 2. 1. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -5. -3. -2. 1. -6. -13. -20. -24. -31. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122013 KAREN 10/04/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122013 KAREN 10/04/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122013 KAREN 10/04/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)