* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122013 10/04/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 41 40 40 43 44 43 39 32 29 33 27 V (KT) LAND 45 42 41 40 40 43 43 34 29 27 28 31 29 V (KT) LGE mod 45 42 39 38 38 37 37 31 28 27 28 28 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 19 23 24 25 26 31 43 48 52 50 40 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 2 2 0 1 -1 0 -1 -2 4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 274 265 258 266 266 253 253 226 212 199 195 187 217 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.3 27.8 25.4 23.9 21.2 18.7 14.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 150 148 145 143 141 136 111 100 86 78 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 133 129 126 123 122 124 121 100 90 79 72 67 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -53.4 -53.7 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 2 3 1 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 53 50 46 43 44 49 50 49 47 51 52 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 11 12 14 16 16 17 14 14 22 16 850 MB ENV VOR -67 -56 -64 -90 -69 -24 10 60 108 127 147 136 125 200 MB DIV 12 27 54 44 50 41 33 50 80 46 68 68 71 700-850 TADV 11 7 9 9 1 2 12 7 -10 -38 -48 -40 -40 LAND (KM) 433 366 301 245 189 80 58 -100 -257 -259 -48 -16 124 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 25.8 26.4 26.9 27.4 28.4 29.7 31.4 33.6 36.1 38.7 41.1 43.0 LONG(DEG W) 90.1 90.3 90.4 90.6 90.7 90.3 88.8 86.3 83.0 79.5 75.9 72.2 68.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 7 11 16 19 19 19 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 42 42 38 38 35 26 16 24 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -7. -13. -19. -24. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 1. 1. 7. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -5. -2. -1. -2. -6. -13. -16. -12. -18. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122013 KAREN 10/04/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122013 KAREN 10/04/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122013 KAREN 10/04/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED