* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122013 10/04/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 41 41 43 46 46 44 37 35 39 29 V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 41 41 43 46 32 28 27 30 34 25 V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 42 41 41 41 42 31 28 27 27 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 24 28 28 24 27 29 38 36 37 42 35 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 1 0 -4 -1 0 1 0 2 3 1 3 SHEAR DIR 268 259 270 276 273 260 238 231 210 203 210 215 206 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 26.6 25.0 23.8 21.8 20.5 17.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 148 145 143 142 141 122 107 98 88 82 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 129 127 123 122 124 125 108 95 87 79 75 70 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 10 4 4 2 4 3 3 1 1 700-500 MB RH 51 49 45 43 43 47 50 52 46 41 47 49 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 10 10 10 11 13 13 13 8 9 16 10 850 MB ENV VOR -57 -68 -102 -84 -39 -17 30 67 106 75 62 64 109 200 MB DIV 30 52 31 39 29 47 57 62 75 57 84 70 73 700-850 TADV 7 8 13 0 0 9 1 11 -4 -17 36 -13 -14 LAND (KM) 366 300 235 181 125 14 7 -246 -219 -198 6 118 153 LAT (DEG N) 25.8 26.4 27.0 27.5 28.0 29.0 30.4 32.3 34.4 36.3 38.1 39.8 41.4 LONG(DEG W) 90.2 90.3 90.4 90.5 90.5 89.4 86.8 84.0 81.3 78.3 75.2 72.1 68.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 10 14 15 16 15 15 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 42 39 39 37 32 11 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -15. -18. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -6. -5. 2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 1. 1. -1. -8. -10. -6. -16. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122013 KAREN 10/04/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122013 KAREN 10/04/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122013 KAREN 10/04/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED