* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122013 10/05/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 43 44 45 46 43 39 33 27 23 16 V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 43 44 45 46 32 28 27 27 23 17 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 44 44 44 44 46 33 28 27 30 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 31 28 22 22 23 36 40 46 51 58 54 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -5 -1 -3 0 0 0 -6 -5 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 263 277 283 279 255 256 224 215 204 210 216 232 241 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.0 25.8 25.1 23.5 23.6 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 146 145 144 144 142 126 114 108 96 97 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 128 124 123 123 125 125 111 100 94 85 85 77 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 -54.8 -55.3 -55.7 -55.9 -56.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 10 7 2 4 1 3 0 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 47 46 46 48 51 52 48 40 36 35 34 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 9 8 9 9 9 10 9 8 6 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -66 -89 -75 -44 -24 7 40 56 79 52 22 -3 -59 200 MB DIV 47 40 32 34 39 45 43 33 27 13 20 3 8 700-850 TADV 8 14 3 1 2 6 2 0 -21 -48 -37 -20 -21 LAND (KM) 333 279 222 170 111 66 20 -192 -124 -84 103 277 278 LAT (DEG N) 26.1 26.6 27.1 27.6 28.1 29.0 30.3 31.8 33.6 35.2 36.8 38.4 39.9 LONG(DEG W) 90.3 90.5 90.7 90.5 90.2 88.6 86.5 83.9 80.9 77.9 74.7 71.5 68.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 7 10 12 14 15 15 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 38 37 35 36 32 28 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 9. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -14. -20. -25. -30. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. -2. -6. -12. -18. -22. -29. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122013 KAREN 10/05/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122013 KAREN 10/05/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122013 KAREN 10/05/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED