* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122013 10/05/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 32 32 32 36 33 30 25 23 20 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 32 32 32 36 30 28 27 27 27 26 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 30 29 28 29 26 27 27 27 30 31 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 30 28 21 23 27 33 42 47 43 46 48 54 66 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -6 0 -2 0 3 -3 -2 0 -3 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 282 290 279 257 264 233 216 197 207 203 216 211 225 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 27.6 25.5 24.6 22.3 21.4 19.1 17.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 145 144 143 143 133 112 104 90 86 78 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 125 123 122 123 126 118 99 92 81 77 72 69 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -54.4 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 7 4 4 1 3 2 2 1 2 0 700-500 MB RH 47 47 47 48 49 54 53 47 46 49 49 49 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 9 8 12 9 8 6 6 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -96 -68 -35 -26 -12 32 53 103 99 131 95 108 101 200 MB DIV 31 31 39 53 49 58 49 42 54 71 61 54 38 700-850 TADV 11 5 1 1 7 3 13 -13 -17 -48 -30 -30 -13 LAND (KM) 279 222 166 119 69 88 -129 -214 -200 -30 150 144 144 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.1 27.6 28.1 28.5 29.6 31.5 33.5 35.5 37.4 39.1 40.7 42.2 LONG(DEG W) 91.1 91.0 90.8 90.4 89.9 88.2 85.6 82.5 79.4 76.1 72.7 69.3 65.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 8 12 15 16 16 16 15 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 39 33 32 32 25 28 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -1. -8. -15. -21. -26. -30. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -17. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -3. -3. 1. -2. -5. -10. -12. -15. -17. -22. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122013 KAREN 10/05/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122013 KAREN 10/05/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122013 KAREN 10/05/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)