* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122013 10/05/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 33 33 33 34 31 27 21 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 33 33 29 29 28 27 27 28 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 30 29 26 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 27 21 22 26 31 48 48 55 51 47 36 35 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 0 -2 -5 0 -3 -1 -3 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 291 279 259 261 251 218 206 205 221 219 224 232 242 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 26.4 24.5 22.9 20.9 19.4 16.2 13.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 142 141 140 140 120 103 93 84 79 72 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 119 120 119 121 124 107 91 83 76 72 67 65 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.7 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -55.0 -54.8 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 6 2 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 48 49 50 54 50 46 41 39 32 30 28 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 9 7 6 6 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -65 -24 -22 -11 2 33 93 107 133 111 119 120 119 200 MB DIV 31 42 53 47 34 46 33 32 16 21 20 5 12 700-850 TADV 5 2 4 10 3 0 -6 -22 -70 -58 -48 -44 -15 LAND (KM) 184 133 83 31 -11 -16 -273 -285 -319 -131 -31 -11 77 LAT (DEG N) 27.6 28.0 28.4 28.9 29.3 30.7 32.6 34.8 37.0 39.1 40.9 42.5 43.9 LONG(DEG W) 91.6 91.4 91.1 90.7 90.2 88.2 84.8 81.9 79.6 76.9 73.9 71.0 67.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 6 9 14 16 15 15 15 14 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 22 21 21 16 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 801 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -3. -11. -20. -26. -30. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -4. -8. -14. -20. -20. -18. -16. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122013 KAREN 10/05/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122013 KAREN 10/05/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122013 KAREN 10/05/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)