* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122013 10/05/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 39 39 39 34 29 23 19 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 34 38 30 28 28 22 18 15 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 33 37 29 28 30 28 26 25 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 22 27 29 35 43 45 46 52 56 55 60 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 -2 -5 -2 1 -4 -4 -4 -7 -3 -6 N/A SHEAR DIR 285 259 265 252 234 218 212 216 217 225 225 237 N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.3 26.3 26.4 25.4 25.2 25.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 142 141 141 129 118 119 109 108 107 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 119 120 122 123 123 113 103 103 95 93 92 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.5 -55.5 -55.8 -55.9 -55.9 -56.3 -56.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 6 3 1 2 1 2 0 1 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 48 50 53 53 46 38 36 34 35 40 39 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 6 7 9 8 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -29 -17 -2 22 49 72 37 58 17 20 -32 N/A 200 MB DIV 34 33 47 47 46 34 17 16 31 13 19 -4 N/A 700-850 TADV 1 4 12 5 -3 2 -10 -6 -1 0 -6 -3 N/A LAND (KM) 165 113 62 17 -1 7 -149 -43 21 49 259 357 N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.9 28.3 28.6 29.0 29.4 30.4 31.4 32.5 33.7 35.0 36.4 38.1 N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.8 91.5 91.1 90.3 89.4 86.8 83.9 81.1 78.3 75.6 72.9 70.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 8 11 13 14 13 13 13 13 14 N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 20 20 12 4 26 15 18 10 0 1 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 807 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -3. -11. -19. -27. -33. -38. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. -1. -6. -12. -16. -19. -22. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122013 KAREN 10/05/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122013 KAREN 10/05/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122013 KAREN 10/05/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)