* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122013 10/06/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 38 38 37 35 33 25 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 38 38 37 31 31 24 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 36 37 37 33 32 30 28 26 24 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 26 26 29 37 42 46 38 52 49 55 44 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -2 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -6 -5 -2 N/A SHEAR DIR 262 264 248 232 229 226 228 240 239 244 236 233 N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.3 26.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 142 142 142 143 138 133 134 134 128 123 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 122 122 124 124 125 121 115 115 114 109 104 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.9 -55.1 -55.4 -55.2 -55.5 -55.7 -56.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 2 0 2 2 1 3 0 3 1 2 1 N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 49 51 50 48 40 37 39 41 42 43 43 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 6 7 9 8 6 5 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -21 -2 19 16 47 32 29 9 -5 1 14 N/A 200 MB DIV 39 37 41 47 35 12 -2 9 7 11 6 33 N/A 700-850 TADV 3 10 3 -3 -8 -9 -8 -4 -6 -3 -16 -10 N/A LAND (KM) 154 82 43 4 87 44 -21 43 257 316 290 284 N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.9 30.6 31.3 32.5 33.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.9 91.2 90.5 89.4 88.3 85.8 83.1 80.8 78.7 76.8 75.0 73.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 8 10 10 11 11 10 9 9 10 10 N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 17 18 5 26 19 22 11 20 19 6 4 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 807 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -3. -11. -19. -27. -32. -36. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -18. -21. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -10. -18. -21. -22. -24. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122013 KAREN 10/06/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122013 KAREN 10/06/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122013 KAREN 10/06/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)