* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122013 10/06/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 30 31 30 30 28 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 30 31 30 30 26 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 27 27 26 23 27 25 23 21 19 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 25 28 37 43 48 39 43 50 49 48 44 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -1 2 1 -4 -3 -4 -1 -5 -3 -3 N/A SHEAR DIR 263 248 234 230 230 230 232 240 243 236 230 224 N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.9 28.0 27.7 27.3 27.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 144 144 144 143 138 135 136 132 128 124 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 125 125 126 125 125 121 117 117 113 109 105 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -55.0 -55.1 -55.1 -55.0 -55.3 -55.4 -55.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 0 2 3 1 3 2 3 2 4 2 3 N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 51 53 48 44 38 38 41 43 47 48 47 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 9 8 7 6 6 6 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 4 26 19 42 58 38 40 8 5 9 42 N/A 200 MB DIV 31 40 50 46 20 14 12 20 13 14 8 25 N/A 700-850 TADV 8 2 -4 -14 -5 -9 -3 -7 2 -7 -2 -2 N/A LAND (KM) 139 72 57 77 158 70 -50 88 307 329 306 318 N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.8 30.5 31.4 32.6 34.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.8 90.8 89.7 88.6 87.4 85.1 82.5 80.3 78.1 76.3 74.5 72.9 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 9 9 10 10 N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 20 22 28 32 19 16 20 17 22 2 4 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 826 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 14. 18. 21. 22. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. -3. -12. -21. -29. -34. -38. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. -23. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -5. -15. -22. -24. -22. -24. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122013 KAREN 10/06/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122013 KAREN 10/06/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122013 KAREN 10/06/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED