* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142013 10/06/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 46 53 61 64 62 57 51 43 34 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 46 53 61 64 62 57 51 43 34 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 41 47 52 54 53 50 45 39 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 10 8 10 7 0 8 11 20 27 36 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -4 -3 -3 -4 0 -3 -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 55 59 78 84 77 125 95 230 263 233 247 242 244 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.8 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.1 25.2 23.9 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 149 148 147 141 135 130 127 123 114 102 91 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 61 62 61 60 60 58 58 61 57 58 53 50 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 13 14 14 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 30 36 38 34 31 20 2 6 5 30 22 28 26 200 MB DIV 65 55 65 50 53 52 35 50 34 25 17 5 16 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 1 4 5 2 LAND (KM) 1405 1447 1494 1532 1561 1607 1654 1665 1613 1497 1348 1168 910 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.7 15.4 16.2 17.0 17.8 19.0 20.6 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 118.0 118.9 119.8 120.8 121.7 123.3 124.6 125.4 125.5 124.8 124.1 123.4 122.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 10 9 8 6 5 4 6 8 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 13 14 13 5 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 21. 22. 23. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 0. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 23. 31. 34. 32. 27. 21. 13. 4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142013 FOURTEEN 10/06/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142013 FOURTEEN 10/06/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##