* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP142013 10/07/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 53 58 63 68 68 65 59 51 44 40 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 53 58 63 68 68 65 59 51 44 40 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 48 52 55 61 64 64 60 55 50 45 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 15 10 4 5 5 9 13 12 18 23 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -4 -2 0 -2 -2 -3 0 5 8 6 SHEAR DIR 63 60 60 64 55 2 211 264 247 255 271 296 300 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 145 143 141 136 132 130 129 128 128 127 125 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 60 58 58 59 59 57 61 60 59 57 53 44 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 13 14 13 13 14 15 16 16 14 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 35 31 28 26 21 1 -1 -3 12 23 23 22 41 200 MB DIV 67 48 30 26 32 36 20 4 11 25 -1 -8 -19 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 4 5 3 LAND (KM) 1547 1603 1658 1695 1738 1797 1846 1863 1861 1875 1888 1903 1918 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.9 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 120.4 121.5 122.5 123.5 124.4 125.9 126.9 127.5 127.7 128.0 128.4 128.8 129.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 7 4 2 2 2 2 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 11 8 4 6 7 1 1 2 2 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 6. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 23. 28. 28. 25. 19. 11. 4. 0. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142013 NARDA 10/07/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142013 NARDA 10/07/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##