* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP142013 10/07/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 59 63 65 68 65 60 54 45 37 31 25 V (KT) LAND 50 55 59 63 65 68 65 60 54 45 37 31 25 V (KT) LGE mod 50 56 61 64 66 67 63 58 52 45 39 34 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 6 2 4 5 9 9 10 15 22 24 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 3 7 6 5 3 7 SHEAR DIR 51 50 50 297 338 268 275 258 270 274 297 311 312 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 140 137 134 130 127 125 123 124 123 121 121 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -52.2 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 56 55 56 57 54 57 56 56 56 53 47 41 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 17 17 16 17 16 16 16 14 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 32 31 28 21 7 7 9 9 20 18 22 26 37 200 MB DIV 56 53 58 44 34 11 17 21 38 -2 -29 -41 -26 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 2 3 4 2 2 LAND (KM) 1583 1635 1692 1738 1790 1870 1927 1965 1996 2027 2052 2085 2118 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.7 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 121.9 122.9 123.9 124.9 125.9 127.6 128.7 129.3 129.7 130.1 130.5 131.0 131.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 7 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 12 8 5 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 7 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 15. 18. 15. 10. 4. -5. -13. -19. -25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142013 NARDA 10/07/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142013 NARDA 10/07/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##