* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP142013 10/07/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 66 67 65 61 53 43 34 27 21 17 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 66 67 65 61 53 43 34 27 21 17 V (KT) LGE mod 55 61 65 67 69 68 63 57 50 43 38 33 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 6 4 9 5 10 12 14 18 23 25 22 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -1 1 -5 0 1 -2 0 3 4 1 SHEAR DIR 46 51 27 1 353 266 281 258 270 290 307 296 302 SST (C) 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.0 26.0 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 135 133 131 128 123 120 121 121 121 120 121 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 55 54 53 53 53 55 54 55 55 51 42 41 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 16 16 16 15 15 14 12 11 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 30 25 19 8 11 6 10 24 9 8 2 9 8 200 MB DIV 33 33 18 16 8 -15 -1 5 6 -22 -22 -49 -43 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -2 -2 1 1 2 3 4 5 3 4 LAND (KM) 1625 1683 1748 1805 1858 1912 1934 1942 1942 1967 2034 2092 2164 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.4 16.6 16.6 16.7 16.9 16.9 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 123.0 124.2 125.3 126.3 127.2 128.4 129.2 129.5 129.5 129.9 130.9 131.6 132.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 8 5 3 1 1 3 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 8 3 1 1 1 2 3 2 2 5 0 0 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 12. 10. 6. -2. -12. -21. -28. -34. -38. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142013 NARDA 10/07/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142013 NARDA 10/07/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##