* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP142013 10/08/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 61 61 58 53 49 42 34 30 25 23 V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 61 61 58 53 49 42 34 30 25 23 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 59 60 60 58 53 48 43 38 34 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 3 4 4 5 7 5 9 10 17 18 19 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 2 0 2 5 4 6 4 4 3 3 SHEAR DIR 72 36 318 332 260 261 236 257 269 304 331 340 330 SST (C) 27.4 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 134 131 129 126 124 124 124 125 125 125 126 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 51 52 51 50 53 53 53 49 44 37 33 29 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 18 18 18 17 17 18 17 15 15 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 22 19 10 13 9 20 24 29 31 31 35 43 43 200 MB DIV 22 17 22 7 0 1 5 -6 -23 -36 -46 -54 -13 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -3 0 1 1 1 3 2 2 2 2 LAND (KM) 1714 1775 1841 1885 1922 1988 2035 2067 2114 2171 2255 2256 2162 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.6 15.9 16.0 16.0 15.9 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 124.5 125.6 126.6 127.4 128.2 129.4 130.1 130.5 131.0 131.7 132.8 133.8 134.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 8 7 5 2 2 3 4 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -2. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 3. -2. -6. -13. -21. -25. -30. -32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142013 NARDA 10/08/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142013 NARDA 10/08/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##