* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP142013 10/08/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 47 46 45 40 35 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 49 47 46 45 40 35 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 48 47 46 44 41 38 34 30 27 23 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 4 5 6 10 16 16 19 23 23 22 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 4 1 -2 -1 0 1 1 1 1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 82 342 294 233 246 243 232 258 270 310 320 320 276 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 131 129 128 125 124 123 123 122 124 126 128 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 50 51 51 54 54 54 54 54 51 48 47 42 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 13 12 10 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 11 0 0 -4 0 6 17 12 20 13 24 16 23 200 MB DIV 9 12 1 -4 -11 0 -11 -20 -22 -25 -59 -39 -26 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 1 2 1 3 4 3 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1701 1757 1815 1847 1882 1926 1965 1996 2036 2077 2126 2258 2105 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.2 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.2 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 124.9 125.8 126.7 127.4 128.1 128.9 129.4 129.9 130.4 130.9 131.5 133.0 135.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 5 3 2 2 2 2 5 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 7 3 7 1 2 3 3 2 4 3 3 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -10. -15. -22. -29. -36. -40. -43. -42. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142013 NARDA 10/08/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142013 NARDA 10/08/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##