* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP142013 10/08/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 32 28 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 36 32 28 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 35 32 29 28 25 23 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 7 8 10 13 15 18 22 29 29 28 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 4 4 0 -1 0 4 2 4 -1 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 332 313 277 270 271 249 261 277 294 327 326 304 306 SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 128 127 125 123 122 123 123 125 127 128 129 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 48 49 51 52 52 52 52 50 44 42 41 39 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 15 14 14 14 12 11 10 8 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 2 1 -2 2 6 11 10 14 8 5 5 4 -1 200 MB DIV 15 10 -4 -32 -33 1 -8 -26 -33 -42 -30 -32 -30 700-850 TADV -3 -3 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 2 2 2 2 LAND (KM) 1763 1817 1861 1885 1911 1965 1989 2028 2077 2166 2294 2204 2082 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.2 15.8 15.6 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 126.0 126.9 127.7 128.3 128.8 129.5 129.8 130.3 130.9 131.9 133.1 134.4 135.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 4 2 2 2 4 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 1 1 2 2 1 4 3 6 2 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -9. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -14. -19. -25. -30. -36. -40. -44. -45. -44. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142013 NARDA 10/08/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142013 NARDA 10/08/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##