* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP142013 10/08/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 28 26 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 28 26 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 30 27 25 23 21 20 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 10 12 13 15 14 20 22 16 13 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 0 -3 -3 2 3 0 2 2 2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 300 278 274 275 268 275 273 266 297 313 301 263 263 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 126 124 124 121 121 122 123 125 127 128 128 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 47 48 49 50 49 46 46 43 40 40 38 39 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 9 9 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -10 -2 1 7 9 7 7 5 12 13 9 -3 200 MB DIV 4 -3 -28 -28 -34 -8 -21 -41 -26 -40 -37 -19 -5 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 2 2 1 3 LAND (KM) 1794 1832 1872 1899 1926 1974 2014 2046 2111 2209 2235 2115 2007 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.6 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.3 16.0 15.8 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 127.0 127.7 128.4 128.8 129.2 129.9 130.3 130.7 131.5 132.5 134.0 135.2 136.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 5 4 4 2 2 3 4 6 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 2 2 1 6 7 8 7 1 2 1 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 745 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -8. -10. -13. -18. -23. -28. -30. -32. -33. -31. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142013 NARDA 10/08/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142013 NARDA 10/08/13 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING