* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP142013 10/09/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 25 23 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 25 23 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 24 22 21 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 17 17 16 20 20 23 22 18 20 26 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 -3 -4 -3 2 1 0 0 0 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 282 277 278 275 276 285 277 284 318 318 287 265 242 SST (C) 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.2 25.9 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 122 122 121 120 121 124 124 124 123 120 117 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 47 49 49 47 45 40 38 35 36 36 34 31 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -1 1 8 10 4 0 2 4 11 16 29 15 200 MB DIV -25 -48 -33 -32 -21 -27 -38 -49 -42 -33 -38 -20 7 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 1811 1841 1872 1908 1944 2008 2070 2134 2216 2283 2179 2074 2012 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.8 16.9 16.9 16.9 16.8 16.5 16.3 16.2 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 127.9 128.4 128.9 129.4 129.8 130.5 131.0 131.6 132.5 133.3 134.4 135.3 135.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 1 0 0 7 3 5 1 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 784 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 15. 16. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -8. -12. -17. -22. -26. -28. -29. -30. -30. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142013 NARDA 10/09/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -31.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142013 NARDA 10/09/13 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING