* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP142013 10/09/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 24 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 24 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 26 24 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 15 15 15 20 23 23 19 15 19 26 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -3 1 1 -2 -1 -2 -1 -3 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 267 268 251 257 272 255 268 311 333 328 270 263 242 SST (C) 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 124 123 122 123 123 123 125 127 128 130 129 127 124 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 51 51 48 47 46 39 41 37 39 39 37 35 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -2 0 4 8 11 2 10 7 17 15 29 28 34 200 MB DIV -35 -21 -29 -26 -30 -19 -44 -24 -44 -43 -34 2 10 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 2 1 LAND (KM) 1826 1861 1896 1942 1989 2060 2130 2225 2320 2270 2137 2022 1967 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.5 16.3 15.9 15.5 15.2 15.1 15.4 15.8 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 128.2 128.7 129.1 129.6 130.0 130.7 131.2 132.0 132.9 133.9 135.1 136.1 136.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 4 3 4 5 4 5 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 6 4 8 1 2 2 1 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -20. -25. -28. -29. -28. -28. -28. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142013 NARDA 10/09/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -28.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142013 NARDA 10/09/13 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING