* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP142013 10/09/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 13 14 15 21 22 21 19 17 21 28 32 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 2 4 1 -1 -1 -4 0 0 0 1 N/A SHEAR DIR 235 236 254 251 242 258 302 313 309 269 268 248 N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 122 123 125 125 128 129 130 131 129 127 124 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 49 48 46 43 44 40 41 38 33 31 31 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 5 4 4 3 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -2 3 1 -4 9 3 16 15 21 13 18 N/A 200 MB DIV -6 -21 -32 -26 -18 -37 -45 -38 -50 -24 -4 -1 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 1 1 1 3 0 N/A LAND (KM) 1834 1864 1895 1938 1980 2097 2214 2317 2263 2140 2074 1993 N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 16.7 16.5 16.3 16.1 15.5 15.1 14.9 15.0 15.3 15.8 16.5 N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.4 128.6 128.8 129.2 129.5 130.4 131.5 132.6 134.0 135.1 135.6 136.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 4 4 4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 9 9 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -12. -19. -27. -30. -32. -34. -36. -37. -34. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142013 NARDA 10/09/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142013 NARDA 10/09/13 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING