* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP142013 10/10/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 26 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 16 20 22 23 21 21 20 22 26 31 36 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 2 0 0 0 -3 -1 0 0 0 1 N/A SHEAR DIR 236 235 238 244 258 292 300 311 276 267 250 249 N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 125 126 127 128 130 131 132 132 130 128 126 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -54.7 -54.8 -55.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 43 41 43 42 39 39 36 32 28 28 28 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -1 -2 4 12 6 18 19 32 24 27 23 N/A 200 MB DIV -21 -16 -17 -22 -35 -53 -34 -49 -24 -1 3 -5 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 5 N/A LAND (KM) 1888 1926 1965 2031 2097 2221 2332 2330 2200 2074 1994 1884 N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.3 16.1 15.8 15.5 14.9 14.6 14.5 14.7 15.1 15.7 16.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.7 129.0 129.3 129.9 130.4 131.4 132.5 133.5 134.7 135.8 136.4 137.3 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 5 6 6 6 5 5 6 5 5 5 N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -14. -16. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -11. -19. -25. -30. -33. -36. -39. -40. -38. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142013 NARDA 10/10/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ -0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142013 NARDA 10/10/13 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING