* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP142013 10/10/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 20 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 19 23 23 24 24 23 18 22 26 30 34 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 1 2 1 -1 -3 -2 -1 0 0 3 N/A SHEAR DIR 237 239 242 258 276 292 310 304 277 251 244 254 N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 126 127 128 130 132 133 133 131 130 129 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -55.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 41 43 42 40 40 40 38 37 36 38 36 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 5 13 17 11 8 14 13 22 23 15 4 N/A 200 MB DIV -22 -17 -26 -51 -49 -49 -37 -29 -12 -10 9 5 N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 N/A LAND (KM) 1911 1957 2003 2066 2128 2252 2363 2313 2172 2056 1978 1864 N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.2 15.9 15.7 15.4 14.8 14.4 14.1 14.3 14.7 15.2 15.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.9 129.3 129.6 130.2 130.7 131.7 132.7 133.8 135.1 136.1 136.7 137.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 5 9 12 9 1 2 2 2 4 5 5 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -13. -21. -27. -29. -31. -33. -34. -34. -31. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142013 NARDA 10/10/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -33.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142013 NARDA 10/10/13 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING