* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152013 10/13/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 48 50 50 49 44 34 25 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 45 48 50 50 49 44 34 25 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 46 50 52 53 49 43 37 32 29 27 25 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 5 11 15 16 20 26 31 33 39 36 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 2 3 0 1 0 0 -1 -4 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 123 162 174 183 215 224 227 247 245 243 243 253 261 SST (C) 28.4 27.9 27.4 26.8 26.1 25.2 24.5 24.5 25.1 25.7 25.9 27.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 144 139 132 124 114 106 105 111 116 118 131 149 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.9 -54.1 -54.7 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 79 79 75 71 66 59 51 48 45 44 43 44 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 15 13 13 13 12 8 6 4 4 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 26 28 20 24 26 31 14 7 14 -1 -1 -13 25 200 MB DIV 89 52 58 49 53 24 32 28 9 4 15 3 4 700-850 TADV 4 9 11 12 8 11 9 10 5 6 1 0 -7 LAND (KM) 664 618 554 485 439 349 209 92 14 0 0 -29 70 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.5 18.4 19.4 20.4 21.8 23.1 24.1 24.9 25.4 25.7 25.9 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.5 112.3 112.8 113.3 113.4 113.2 112.8 112.4 112.1 112.1 111.5 110.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 9 7 6 5 4 2 2 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 19 8 2 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -4. -10. -15. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -12. -15. -16. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 10. 10. 9. 4. -6. -15. -22. -27. -31. -30. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152013 FIFTEEN 10/13/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152013 FIFTEEN 10/13/13 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING