* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * OCTAVE EP152013 10/13/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 52 53 53 47 35 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 50 52 53 53 47 35 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 54 54 53 47 39 32 27 23 20 20 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 9 14 17 18 28 30 30 29 37 38 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 4 4 4 1 2 2 2 -2 -2 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 202 210 206 215 227 223 244 243 242 230 240 247 271 SST (C) 27.7 27.2 26.5 25.9 25.2 24.2 23.6 23.7 23.7 24.2 25.2 26.9 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 137 129 122 114 103 96 96 96 102 113 131 145 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.9 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 2 3 3 4 3 5 3 4 2 700-500 MB RH 77 73 69 64 60 53 45 43 43 41 40 37 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 16 16 16 14 10 8 6 7 6 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 36 31 34 38 38 42 18 18 16 5 7 20 26 200 MB DIV 58 68 50 75 57 23 25 18 18 35 23 0 5 700-850 TADV 10 11 11 10 13 11 11 6 9 3 0 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 596 519 463 426 393 269 165 115 100 88 25 -17 36 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.8 19.8 20.7 21.5 22.8 23.9 24.5 24.8 25.3 26.1 26.9 27.8 LONG(DEG W) 111.8 112.4 113.0 113.4 113.7 113.8 113.6 113.4 113.3 113.0 112.6 112.1 111.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 9 8 6 4 3 2 3 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 4 1 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 14 CX,CY: -7/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -8. -13. -18. -23. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 3. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -9. -13. -15. -14. -16. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 8. 8. 2. -10. -21. -31. -36. -42. -44. -46. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152013 OCTAVE 10/13/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152013 OCTAVE 10/13/13 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING