* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * OCTAVE EP152013 10/13/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 60 60 57 46 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 59 60 60 57 46 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 61 60 57 48 40 34 29 26 24 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 12 15 17 24 26 27 31 36 42 48 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 5 4 2 0 2 2 -1 -1 -5 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 215 222 229 232 234 238 252 242 241 244 250 251 261 SST (C) 27.3 26.7 26.0 25.4 24.7 24.1 24.0 24.3 24.3 24.9 25.8 27.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 131 123 117 109 101 99 102 101 109 119 138 150 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -53.6 -53.9 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 3 4 5 5 4 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 73 70 67 65 60 51 44 40 38 36 35 32 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 18 18 17 13 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 27 35 40 38 32 24 22 11 5 6 32 34 200 MB DIV 54 39 67 49 38 31 18 15 15 11 5 -8 -9 700-850 TADV 11 12 12 12 15 11 12 8 14 6 4 -3 1 LAND (KM) 543 485 447 400 322 182 112 64 61 50 -1 20 19 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.5 20.4 21.3 22.2 23.5 24.2 24.6 24.9 25.3 26.0 26.7 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.0 113.4 113.6 113.7 113.4 113.2 112.9 112.9 112.6 112.2 111.5 110.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 5 3 2 2 3 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 1 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -11. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -15. -21. -27. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 4. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -13. -18. -20. -19. -20. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 5. 2. -9. -22. -34. -43. -48. -52. -54. -55. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152013 OCTAVE 10/13/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152013 OCTAVE 10/13/13 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING