* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * OCTAVE EP152013 10/14/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 53 48 33 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 53 48 33 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 56 53 49 40 33 27 23 21 20 23 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 17 18 21 22 32 33 34 36 39 39 46 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 4 4 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 3 6 SHEAR DIR 217 231 233 230 227 245 247 249 245 254 256 272 262 SST (C) 26.3 25.6 24.9 24.3 23.7 23.4 23.8 24.2 23.7 24.3 26.4 28.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 127 119 111 105 98 94 97 100 95 103 126 146 149 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -52.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.9 -54.7 -54.8 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 3 4 3 4 2 3 700-500 MB RH 68 64 64 59 54 43 40 36 33 32 32 31 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 20 19 17 12 7 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 38 47 42 43 30 26 25 2 5 14 40 47 200 MB DIV 33 62 62 50 41 32 -2 12 11 -8 -14 -8 -17 700-850 TADV 16 14 10 12 10 9 4 9 3 1 -5 -6 -10 LAND (KM) 476 431 366 295 232 133 96 90 118 65 -40 44 -107 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.9 21.8 22.6 23.3 24.6 25.1 25.4 25.5 25.9 26.8 27.7 28.9 LONG(DEG W) 113.4 113.6 113.8 113.9 113.9 113.6 113.2 113.0 113.3 113.0 112.3 111.4 110.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 8 7 5 2 1 1 4 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 3 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 14 CX,CY: -6/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -16. -16. -15. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -19. -25. -31. -37. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -9. -16. -23. -25. -24. -25. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -2. -7. -22. -37. -51. -61. -67. -70. -72. -73. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152013 OCTAVE 10/14/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152013 OCTAVE 10/14/13 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING