* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * OCTAVE EP152013 10/14/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 49 43 36 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 53 49 43 36 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 53 50 46 41 33 27 27 25 23 26 26 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 16 22 26 30 35 37 43 50 53 55 52 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 4 4 1 0 2 -2 -5 -7 -3 3 N/A SHEAR DIR 236 236 228 223 239 246 247 246 250 256 261 268 N/A SST (C) 25.5 24.8 24.0 23.8 23.8 24.3 25.7 27.5 28.6 28.7 28.3 28.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 111 102 99 99 103 118 137 148 149 145 146 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -53.6 -54.0 -54.9 -54.6 -54.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 1 2 N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 60 57 54 47 43 41 39 37 36 34 35 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 18 16 14 10 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 41 45 41 31 29 29 18 -2 -1 42 43 N/A 200 MB DIV 68 55 57 43 28 24 14 3 15 4 3 5 N/A 700-850 TADV 19 9 11 11 16 12 7 8 2 4 -3 0 N/A LAND (KM) 419 337 251 179 115 74 7 15 29 -44 -145 -205 N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 22.1 23.0 23.7 24.3 25.2 26.0 26.9 27.6 28.4 29.3 29.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.6 113.7 113.8 113.6 113.3 112.9 112.3 111.7 110.9 110.7 110.4 109.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 7 20 1 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 12 CX,CY: -2/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -8. -6. -4. -3. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -16. -25. -35. -44. -51. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -12. -20. -23. -23. -22. -23. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -12. -19. -33. -47. -54. -57. -60. -65. -68. -70. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152013 OCTAVE 10/14/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152013 OCTAVE 10/14/13 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING