* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * PRISCILLA EP162013 10/14/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 41 41 40 39 37 32 27 22 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 41 41 40 39 37 32 27 22 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 41 43 45 46 45 43 40 36 32 27 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 18 19 14 7 2 6 14 22 24 22 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 4 2 0 2 -1 0 -3 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 80 77 83 96 107 109 13 283 263 267 266 270 257 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.4 26.6 25.8 25.1 24.5 23.8 23.6 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 148 144 136 128 119 112 105 97 94 97 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -54.2 -54.7 -55.0 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 56 56 56 55 51 47 43 40 36 31 25 22 19 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 13 12 9 8 6 4 3 3 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR 68 67 66 60 53 33 12 -6 -19 -28 -24 -16 -11 200 MB DIV 56 38 30 15 28 0 -3 7 -2 -23 -29 -11 -18 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -4 -2 0 2 3 4 3 0 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 1181 1081 981 905 831 760 724 660 618 604 603 592 547 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 6 5 6 5 5 4 2 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 19 27 24 16 8 4 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 10 CX,CY: 3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 16. 16. 15. 14. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. -3. -8. -13. -19. -23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/14/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/14/13 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING