* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * OCTAVE EP152013 10/14/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 41 35 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 46 41 35 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 47 42 38 34 26 22 25 22 21 25 26 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 17 23 31 33 41 40 46 53 54 55 49 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 7 0 -2 2 2 0 -6 -7 -1 4 N/A SHEAR DIR 237 225 220 229 237 239 250 244 249 259 271 264 N/A SST (C) 24.8 24.3 23.8 23.8 24.1 24.6 25.8 26.9 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 105 100 99 102 106 118 130 137 136 133 135 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.5 -53.0 -53.6 -54.3 -53.7 -53.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 3 1 1 0 2 N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 57 52 45 40 34 31 30 27 29 28 28 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 18 16 11 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 39 39 34 24 4 -12 -31 -29 -4 34 33 N/A 200 MB DIV 42 32 35 39 37 -2 -9 -11 -1 -26 -21 -40 N/A 700-850 TADV 12 12 6 6 4 1 -2 -4 -13 -13 -17 -6 N/A LAND (KM) 336 245 165 108 97 35 -37 32 22 -36 -116 -176 N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.1 23.0 23.9 24.6 25.3 26.1 26.6 27.3 27.8 28.4 29.1 29.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.8 113.7 113.6 113.4 113.1 112.8 112.3 111.8 111.0 111.0 110.6 109.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 4 4 4 3 4 4 6 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 45 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 11 CX,CY: 1/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -18. -29. -40. -49. -55. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -8. -18. -20. -21. -21. -20. -21. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -15. -25. -43. -52. -58. -64. -69. -75. -80. -83. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152013 OCTAVE 10/14/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.3/ -0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152013 OCTAVE 10/14/13 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING