* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * PRISCILLA EP162013 10/14/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 47 48 50 47 46 39 34 27 21 DIS V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 47 48 50 47 46 39 34 27 21 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 47 48 47 45 42 38 33 29 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 21 11 6 4 3 8 16 17 18 22 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 3 7 4 2 1 2 -2 -2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 85 94 105 112 85 54 334 272 271 255 255 257 259 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.6 26.7 26.0 25.4 25.1 24.9 24.5 24.5 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 146 142 138 129 121 114 110 109 104 102 106 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -51.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 56 56 55 52 52 48 49 49 47 45 41 38 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 16 17 16 16 14 14 12 11 9 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 66 59 47 32 11 0 -13 -21 -40 -34 -28 -25 -31 200 MB DIV 30 24 21 30 24 2 -35 0 7 -12 -33 -8 -14 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -4 -1 0 1 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1069 994 919 872 825 744 721 683 657 670 735 751 725 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.6 16.3 16.8 17.3 18.5 19.4 20.1 20.5 20.7 20.9 20.9 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 115.5 115.4 115.3 115.3 115.2 115.4 116.2 116.6 116.7 117.1 118.1 118.3 117.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 5 5 6 5 3 2 3 3 0 2 HEAT CONTENT 29 25 15 9 5 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 10 CX,CY: 3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. 2. -1. -1. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 7. 6. -1. -6. -13. -19. -25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/14/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/14/13 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING