* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * OCTAVE EP152013 10/14/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 34 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 40 34 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 40 36 32 28 22 21 24 25 26 29 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 23 31 34 37 37 39 45 44 47 47 51 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 3 0 0 0 -3 -7 -7 -5 -1 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 231 221 229 236 242 241 246 250 257 256 262 257 N/A SST (C) 24.2 23.9 23.8 24.3 24.9 25.4 25.7 26.1 26.5 25.9 26.8 29.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 101 99 104 109 113 115 120 123 118 130 154 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.6 -53.9 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 3 2 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 50 44 40 37 36 35 34 36 30 28 29 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 17 15 14 10 7 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 30 23 24 16 21 9 -2 -2 9 5 16 N/A 200 MB DIV 39 31 28 19 14 15 15 12 -3 -24 -9 -12 N/A 700-850 TADV 13 6 6 4 9 2 3 -3 -4 -11 -6 -5 N/A LAND (KM) 212 143 100 81 47 7 -7 -33 -31 -18 9 2 N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.3 24.1 24.8 25.3 25.7 26.0 25.9 26.1 26.0 26.2 26.8 26.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.6 113.5 113.3 113.0 112.6 112.3 112.1 111.9 111.6 112.1 111.7 109.8 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 6 5 4 1 1 1 0 2 5 9 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 19 0 3 50 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 11 CX,CY: 2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -18. -28. -37. -44. -50. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -5. -9. -17. -19. -20. -19. -19. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -19. -27. -41. -48. -55. -61. -66. -72. -74. -76. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152013 OCTAVE 10/14/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.6/ -0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152013 OCTAVE 10/14/13 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING