* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * PRISCILLA EP162013 10/14/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 41 41 38 35 29 22 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 41 41 38 35 29 22 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 43 43 43 42 40 37 33 28 24 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 14 7 3 6 9 17 22 24 23 26 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -3 -7 -3 0 3 SHEAR DIR 83 107 126 135 194 280 255 239 252 250 253 248 262 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.3 26.6 25.7 25.0 24.4 24.1 24.0 24.2 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 143 140 135 128 118 110 103 100 99 100 102 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -54.0 -54.4 -54.4 -55.0 -55.1 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 53 51 48 46 45 42 38 34 32 27 24 23 23 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 10 8 7 6 5 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 37 27 19 12 6 4 -6 -15 -15 -21 -14 -26 200 MB DIV 0 14 20 9 0 10 8 0 -19 -26 -9 -26 -21 700-850 TADV -5 -2 0 1 3 5 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1032 988 947 935 929 923 929 926 916 949 999 1045 1054 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.4 19.2 19.9 20.6 20.8 20.7 20.4 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 115.8 116.0 116.1 116.5 116.9 118.0 119.0 119.6 120.0 120.5 121.1 121.4 121.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 6 5 4 3 2 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 30 22 13 9 8 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -13. -15. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 1. -2. -5. -11. -18. -25. -31. -35. -39. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/14/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/14/13 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING