* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * OCTAVE EP152013 10/15/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 29 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 35 29 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 35 31 28 23 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 29 35 38 38 44 43 43 44 48 49 54 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 0 0 1 -6 -6 -1 -2 -3 -1 2 N/A SHEAR DIR 217 228 237 241 240 247 253 249 244 256 258 255 N/A SST (C) 24.5 24.7 25.0 25.3 25.7 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.6 25.7 26.7 29.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 107 110 113 116 119 121 122 125 116 129 158 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 5 3 5 3 4 2 3 2 N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 44 39 36 36 32 36 35 35 30 24 25 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 10 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 4 4 -5 -5 0 -21 -25 -14 0 0 9 N/A 200 MB DIV 30 26 24 27 9 7 6 0 -7 -24 -35 -25 N/A 700-850 TADV 4 5 4 6 0 -4 -1 -10 -16 -18 -10 -5 N/A LAND (KM) 55 41 40 18 -11 -28 -31 -41 -47 -3 -12 18 N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.6 25.0 25.4 25.7 26.0 26.2 25.8 25.8 25.6 25.8 26.3 26.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.8 112.7 112.5 112.3 112.1 112.0 111.8 111.7 111.5 112.1 111.6 109.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 6 10 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 13 14 17 1 0 22 7 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 12 CX,CY: 5/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -11. -20. -30. -40. -48. -54. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -6. -11. -16. -17. -18. -18. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -17. -25. -35. -42. -50. -57. -64. -70. -74. -76. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152013 OCTAVE 10/15/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.8/ -1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152013 OCTAVE 10/15/13 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING