* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * OCTAVE EP152013 10/15/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 26 26 26 27 27 26 23 21 23 26 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 36 38 38 39 43 51 48 50 46 55 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 0 -1 -6 -7 -4 -1 3 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 226 236 239 241 245 247 247 244 255 264 260 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.9 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.8 27.4 27.9 27.4 27.1 27.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 119 122 122 122 128 135 140 136 134 133 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 -53.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 5 6 5 4 3 3 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 39 37 36 34 32 32 32 26 19 17 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -1 -9 -1 11 -15 -18 -6 29 23 -5 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 21 26 17 21 15 10 0 -23 -31 -41 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 3 4 -1 -2 2 -4 -6 -10 -7 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 0 -20 -40 -41 -45 -10 38 38 22 -147 -264 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.5 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.2 26.6 27.1 28.0 29.3 29.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.1 111.9 111.7 111.7 111.7 111.5 111.2 110.8 111.4 110.3 108.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 3 2 1 2 2 3 4 6 7 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 16 17 17 4 6 9 22 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 11 CX,CY: 6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -9. -20. -33. -45. -54. -59. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 20. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -18. -23. -28. -35. -41. -47. -54. -57. -58. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152013 OCTAVE 10/15/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: -1.0/ -1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152013 OCTAVE 10/15/13 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING