* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * PRISCILLA EP162013 10/15/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 31 29 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 31 29 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 32 31 30 28 25 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 8 3 4 5 11 19 23 23 21 22 20 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 0 1 1 -4 -5 -4 -2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 126 143 163 197 230 239 244 252 254 259 275 304 310 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.6 25.7 24.9 24.6 24.4 24.2 24.0 23.8 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 135 133 129 119 110 106 104 102 99 97 94 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -54.3 -54.5 -55.0 -55.2 -55.3 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 50 47 45 45 46 44 40 36 31 26 25 22 20 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 10 8 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 4 -3 -2 0 0 -10 -22 -21 -23 -16 -24 -32 200 MB DIV 10 10 14 7 21 16 7 -32 -23 -22 -26 -20 -31 700-850 TADV 0 2 4 5 6 6 6 3 2 1 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 908 912 921 929 938 960 1009 1082 1143 1198 1238 1274 1283 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.3 17.6 18.0 18.3 19.2 19.8 19.9 19.8 19.8 19.9 20.1 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 115.9 116.4 116.8 117.5 118.1 119.4 120.5 121.4 122.1 122.9 123.6 124.3 124.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 7 5 4 3 4 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 8 10 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -3. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -16. -24. -30. -36. -40. -43. -44. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/15/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/15/13 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING