* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * OCTAVE EP152013 10/15/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 26 25 25 24 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 26 25 25 24 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 26 24 26 26 27 27 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 35 35 36 36 47 54 59 59 58 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 0 -1 -3 -6 -3 -1 3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 236 239 235 240 242 242 249 245 247 246 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.7 28.2 28.7 29.1 29.2 28.6 27.8 27.0 26.9 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 138 143 148 153 154 148 140 132 132 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.0 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 7 5 5 5 2 3 1 3 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 38 37 35 34 33 34 35 33 34 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -15 0 19 16 -13 -8 33 65 38 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 32 14 12 5 -8 -1 -3 -2 -8 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 -5 -3 -3 -5 -7 -10 -9 -14 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 0 25 54 85 52 -45 -146 -200 -314 -458 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.6 25.9 26.1 26.3 27.0 27.6 28.4 29.4 29.4 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.0 110.8 110.5 110.2 109.9 109.3 108.5 108.6 107.8 106.0 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 3 4 4 4 5 6 8 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 8 11 13 11 45 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 22. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. -1. -9. -21. -37. -51. -59. -65. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 19. 20. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -5. -5. -6. -9. -15. -22. -31. -38. -43. -45. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152013 OCTAVE 10/15/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.9/ -1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152013 OCTAVE 10/15/13 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING