* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * PRISCILLA EP162013 10/15/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 33 29 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 33 29 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 34 32 28 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 4 3 3 6 12 19 23 22 23 21 21 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 -1 -4 -3 -5 1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 121 137 172 248 272 245 249 248 252 258 265 282 315 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.2 25.4 24.9 24.6 24.4 24.1 23.7 23.4 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 132 130 124 115 109 106 103 100 96 93 89 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -55.3 -55.0 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 48 45 46 46 45 43 39 33 30 27 25 23 22 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -3 -3 0 -10 -12 -27 -34 -29 -29 -16 -30 -30 200 MB DIV 16 13 4 13 16 16 -4 -36 -19 10 -35 -16 -48 700-850 TADV 2 4 4 6 4 5 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 905 917 919 922 932 969 1033 1088 1143 1167 1184 1198 1177 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.4 19.7 19.8 19.8 20.0 20.3 20.7 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 116.2 116.7 117.2 117.9 118.5 119.7 120.7 121.4 122.1 122.7 123.3 123.9 124.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 6 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 9 10 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -13. -20. -27. -33. -37. -39. -41. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/15/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162013 PRISCILLA 10/15/13 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING